The Best Newsletters

What These Two Indicators Are Saying

Investment Tips Comments Off

With the Fed meeting finally out of the way, traders can now turn their attention to other things happening in the markets such as rising interest rates, the wild action in the currency markets (if you haven’t seen it recently, be sure to check out symbol UUP – PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index), the question of where commodities are going, China’s stimulus plans, that hot new IPO, the ongoing geopolitical issues, and of course the fundamentals of the stock market.
(more…)

Stocks Appeared to Warm to Fed’s Statement

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Market warms up to the FOMC ‘CT’ phrase.
- DJ30, SP500, SOX hit new highs, but NASDAQ, RUTX look wobbly.
- Housing starts turn rather sharply negative.
- Some very good market leadership as other buyers enter and push our positions, taken when times were a bit murkier, upside.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Milk, Ground Beef Hit New All-Time Highs

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Fed keeps a ‘considerable time’ on the burner, stocks up, down, flat.
- CPI drops as milk, ground beef hit new all-time highs.
- Chips are still leaders, along with many other stocks, but rapid rotation continues.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

PPI Lowest of 2014

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks turn from a weak open to gains with DJ30, SOX leading.
- Hilsenrath credited with helping market higher as the Fed’s ‘ear’ says Fed will reiterate low rates for the longer term.
- Buybacks impressive for the year, no doubt helping keep the market higher.
- PPI lowest of 2014.
- Not everything turned upside as the market remains split, unable to move up together.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

A Tale of Two Markets

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Futures head fake as pre-market moves reversed at the open.
- SP500, DJ30 hold up fine, growth sells hard.
- Selling blamed on Alibaba IPO prep and pre-FOMC jitters.  Whatever the reason, growth sold instead of bouncing.
- NY PMI jumps after biggest decline in 2 years even as employment and the workweek fade further, new orders flat.
- Industrial production and capacity fall sharply.  More accurate than adjusted sentiment?
- China: Even more very worrisome economic data.
- The next break was lower from the consolidation.  Again, will there be follow through?

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

What the Fed is Betting On

Investment Tips Comments Off

The big focus in the market last week revolved around the possibility that Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers may need to change their tune at this week’s FOMC meeting. More specifically, the issue is if there will be tweaks to the Fed’s forward guidance language, with most of the concern focused on the likelihood that the FOMC may drop the phrase “considerable time” from its post-meeting statement.
(more…)

Leaders Still Setting Up But Some are Lagging

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks slide back into a holding pattern as Thursday’s growth advance is flipped.
- Retail sales solid on autos, higher costs.
- China economic data shows a massive slowdown.
- Leaders still setting up but some are lagging.
- At this time of year a failure to launch when the opportunity is there can lead to trouble.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

The Fed is Gambling Again

Investment Tips Comments Off

There can be little argument that the U.S. Federal Reserve saved the banking system and in the process, the global economy, during the credit crisis. In an intense time with the financial system seemingly coming apart at the seams, Bernanke & Co. pulled out all the stops in order to keep the country from an abject disaster.
(more…)

Decent Recovery Led By the Small Caps

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Struggle to start on 9-11 after inspiring Presidential airstrike promise, but a decent recovery led by the small caps.
- Jobless claims jump but nothing major, nothing like the Ebola cases.
- Oil to a 2.5 year low in demand, so it was time to bounce.
- Nice leadership even if big biotech struggles.
- RUTX puts in a nice upside break, SP400 as well.  Large caps trying.
- Critical time ahead as stocks set to bounce but have to watch out for seasonal dips.
(more…)

Trying To Rally Again

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY- Stocks hold the bottom of the range, bounce with NASDAQ in the lead.  And AAPL.  And Scotland.
- Key groups lead, helping bounce indices off support.  Key groups lag, holding indices in the range.
- Wholesale inventories in three month decline, weakening a GDP built mostly on inventories.
- Japan joins Europe in the negative interest rate policy, unintentionally of course.
- Trying to rally again, some good moves, but nothing decided yet.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Indices Still Holding the Recent Ranges

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- No breakout as the indices stall and fall to the bottom of the range.
- Selling has a bit more teeth, but indices still holding the recent ranges.
- Japan conducts another lesson in classic economics.
- Gallup survey continues its divergence from the government consumer sentiment polls.
- Seen this headline before: “Why this market will never go down.”  Should be subtitled ” . . . until it does.”

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Time to Buy the VIX?

Investment Tips Comments Off

In our search for value among various asset classes, we concluded that – generally speaking – stocks are fairly to slightly overvalued, bonds are extremely and historically overvalued, commodities in general and gold in particular, while not cheap by historical standards, could be ripe for a playable rally, and that real estate is no longer cheap.
(more…)

Market Runs In Place

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Lower start Monday struggles to produce any upside as indices fail to make headway.
- Some solid upside breaks even as the overall market runs in place.
- World economic issues push dollar higher, keep money moving into US stocks.
- Housing market, stock market buoyed by foreign investors as US stock ownership falls to 18 year lows.  Lack of trust?  How about no money?
- Butter now milk hit all-time highs.
- Leaders still trying to lead, indices not yet following.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Finding Value in the VIX

Investment Tips Comments Off

There has been an awful lot of discussion lately on the topic of stock market valuations. Yale’s Robert Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013, has been quite vocal with his view that stocks are extremely overvalued at this time and that investors should be worried.
(more…)

Jobs Numbers Bad, Jobs Numbers Good

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Jobs disappoint but stocks take to new highs nonetheless.
- Jobs numbers bad, jobs numbers good, the underlying issues remain the same: quality, lack of participation.
- Still no resolution of this latest lateral move at the highs, but the trend remains regardless of the overbought condition and overlay bullish investors surveys.
- Plenty of upside potential in terms of stocks, you cannot write off a further upside move even if the billionaires are.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Stocks Fail to Hold the Move Again

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Good news, no good move: Stocks jump to open a second session, again fail to hold the move.
- ECB cuts rates, announces the pursuit of QE.
- ADP jobs fall short ahead of jobs report.
- ISM services jumps, again thanks to adjustments.
- Productivity falls but even as it does, wages fall.  Something is just not right.
- Stocks fail to hold gains again, less than great action, but the indices continue to hold up.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Market is Jumpy Thanks to the Geopolitical News

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Ukraine cries wolf again, market jumps again, then fades again.
- Economic data surges again but doesn’t surge again.
- Another billionaire proclaims the market is overvalued, headed for a correction.  Are not all rallies ultimately heading there?
- Potential reversal signals on the indices, but this run has shown that before.
- Patterns overall remain positive, but the market is jumpy thanks to the geopolitical news.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Stocks Skate Past Selling Attempt

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Investors come back from holiday, continue the same action.
- Sellers take a run at the early gains, but stocks recover.
- Growth stocks lead the market again as the large cap NSYE consolidate.
- US data solid as ISM beats big, Construction rallies back and beats big as well.
- The rest of the world economies continue their decline.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Recent Pullback May Support Year End Run

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- No shortage of issues, economic, geopolitical, market, but stocks rally Friday.
- Facing the last third of the year, where the year’s outcome is determined.
- Lifecycle of stocks: many extended as stocks enter the run to year end.
- Extended perhaps, but the trends are in place and the recent pullback may be enough to support a year end run.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Market Spooked But Not Scared

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Invasion?  Entry?  Event?  War?  NATO says Russia in Ukraine, spooks market.
- Market spooked but not scared as stocks sell but recover yet again.
- Thursday action certainly looks more like a pullback/test versus a selloff.
- GDP Q2 2nd edition at 4.2%, defying pretty much all other data.
- Some good pullbacks in progress and while we likely don’t buy much on Friday, we want to have some plays in the pocket, ready to go.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Last Official Week of Summer Winds Down

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks hit a bit of resistance, but hold prior gains and SP500 2000.
- Slow news day as the last official week of summer winds down.
- Divergent views of the market’s next major move.
- Hope sinks: the CBO’s shrinking GDP predictions.
- With the start of the last season of the market on Tuesday and a three week run to resistance, we are more interested, for the moment, in play management.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Will the Bears Eventually Get it Right?

Investment Tips Comments Off

It is said that differing opinions is what makes a market. If there is one thing we know for sure about the current market, it is that the disparity between the opinions of what “should” be happening in the market versus what is actually happening in the market is about a mile wide.
(more…)

Gains Are Compressing

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- And more gains as NASDAQ leads, pushed by RUTX.
- Three weeks into the rally, some indices struggling, others taking the point.
- Durables fly on airplane orders, crash on everything else.
- Consumer confidence rises versus falling as anticipated.
- Last rally was 7 weeks, this one is 3, still some upside if leaders continue to develop.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Another Day Higher

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- No Wylie Coyote cliff dive move as M&A keeps the action spicy.
- SP500 hits 2000, can’t hold it, but logs another nice upside session.
- Stocks, less SOX, rally as SOX reverses.  Has SOX lost its leadership mojo or will the other indices again follow?
- New home sales fall.  In some places.
- Another day higher, another day of defying the shorts.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Stocks are Not Dangerously Overvalued

Investment Tips Comments Off

With the S&P moving back to new all-time highs, the debate over valuation levels in the stock market is heating up again. Therefore, this would appear to be a good time to continue our in-depth look at a multitude of valuation indicators.
(more…)

Yellen Postures as No Uber Dove

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- After a nice run to some new highs on low volume, stocks pause.
- Jackson Hole: Yellen postures as no uber dove, Draghi cannot deliver QE, Bullard says hike rates in late Q1.  Sure sounds as if six months is the target for rate hikes.
- More upside from here?  Many tech names that took time off look ready to move higher again, but then there is Russia.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

All Eyes Are On Jackson Hole

Investment Tips Comments Off

If it’s Friday then there must be new developments in the Russia/Ukraine situation for traders to worry about. Sure enough, this morning there is word that Russia has ordered a convoy of between 70 and 90 aid trucks to cross over the border into eastern Ukraine without approval from Ukrainian officials or the Red Cross. According to reports, Kiev said the move represents a “direct invasion” of Ukraine by Russia.
(more…)

SP500 Logged a New All Time High

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Not powerful moves but SP500 joins NASDAQ with a higher high, posting a new all-time high.
- Large cap NYSE leads again with financials, some tech outperforming.
- Economic data shows improvement on the one hand, same old issues on the other.
- Nobel economist exasperated by the US’ pathetic recovery, states the obvious but misses the key summation: we are so used to bad numbers we are beguiled by modestly better results.
- Mediocre moves for the most part but still higher.  Friday if the move starts to the upside again, we will see what gain we can take.
(more…)

A Strong List of Strong Results

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks start lower, recovery, fight off the FOMC, rally back.
- NASDAQ takes a pause, other indices continue upside.
- FOMC talks of a faster than believed jobs recovery, some want a rate hike soon, others want more data before they agree to that.
- The dichotomy continues: some discretionary stocks reporting good results, others in a complete meltdown.
- Letting positions run as long as the market does.  SP500 still has an important test at the old high.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Stocks Felt No Headwinds

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Another new post-bear market high for NASDAQ, SP500 not far from one, the others working on resistance.
- Economic news looks better and not better, showing the same dichotomy between the high end and everyone else.
- Strong price moves, still low volume, quiet on the geopolitical front.
- As the upside continues it is time to we look to take some gain on the move.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Better To Be A Bit Patient

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- NASDAQ to a new post-bear market high, SP500, DJ30, SOX at resistance.
- Lack of negative geopolitical news helps market pick up from pre-Ukraine news Friday.
- IP says box sales are not indicating a strong economy, certainly not a surge.
- Market up more than a week, NASDAQ over next resistance.  Not the best time to enter, but we will see.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Robert Shiller is Very Worried

Investment Tips Comments Off

The topic of the day from a short-term perspective is the state of the geopolitical issues in Ukraine/Russia and to a lesser extent Iraq and Gaza/Israel. The way this game is played is simple, really. When headlines speak of troop movements, stocks go down. Then when the news wire reports that tensions have eased (as is the case this morning), stocks go up. And most importantly, it is vital to remember that once the geopolitical issue that captured the market’s attention for a spell is over, oftentimes so too is the corrective phase brought on by the bad news.
(more…)

Institutions Still Selling, Companies Still Buying

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks cruise to more gains, toppled by Ukraine news, fight back.
- Indices recover to take on resistance again, leadership hanging in with new entries.
- Production and Capacity stronger, reality maybe not so.
- China power consumption flops.
- Institutions still selling, companies still buying, retail investors edges back in after a month of flight.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Bounce Rally Continues

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- More bad economic news but stocks are un-phased.
- Indices pushing toward next resistance.
- Leadership still showing up as new stocks break higher from good patterns, try to add to leadership.
- Market needs the new leaders as indices approach resistance.
- Bonds exploding higher.

Watch Market Overview Video
(more…)

Are Stocks Really Overvalued?

Investment Tips Comments Off

Everybody knows that the current bull market has been one for the ages. Everybody who has been long stocks for the last few years has likely enjoyed the ride. Everybody knows that the current bull market is getting old. And yet, everybody also knows that this market has some “issues.”
(more…)

Stocks Continued The Move Higher

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Some bad economic news but stocks resume the move.
- Retail Sales flat in July as no rebound to start the second half.
- Japan GDP stinks, EU Industrial production flips unexpectedly negative.
- Ready to bounce: Indices post solid gains, leadership jumps ahead.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Losses Were Modest

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks struggle but hold on, looking like a pause in the bounce.
- Leadership performs but narrows as small caps struggle.
- JOLTS shows promise but pay rates are way down along with confidence as to the economic growth.
- Indices look ready to continue the Friday rally, but in the bigger context it is also likely still just a bounce.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Enjoy the Ride While it Lasts

Investment Tips Comments Off

When trying to succeed in the stock market, at least half of the battle is learning to identify the type of environment you are dealing with. If the two devastating bear markets that occurred since the turn of the century taught investors anything, it was that employing the same pedal-to-the-metal growth approach that can produce strong gains during a bullish market can be a recipe for disaster in a bearish environment.
(more…)

Still Some Quality Leadership

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks continue Friday bounce, look impressive, then fade much of the gain.
- Lake of any new problems helps stocks rise, but even then they try and toss gains.
- Still some quality leadership, still laggards bouncing after damaging declines.
- Lower volume, gave back a lot of gains, looks still to be a bounce.
- Up to NASDAQ, SOX as the Monday best performers.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

The Current State of the Market

Investment Tips Comments Off

Last week, I had the pleasure of driving up California’s coast from Los Angeles to San Francisco. While the traffic outside of L.A. is numbing, the rest of the trek is a delight (if you aren’t in a hurry). There were business meetings in San Luis Obispo (an undiscovered destination that is worth a visit – the area has its own “wine country”) and San Jose (where business is BOOMING btw) as well as more than a few impromptu stops along the way to marvel at the beauty of the coast.
(more…)

Still Split Leadership and a Split Market

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Air strikes in Iraq send market down, Russia ending another military exercise bounces it back up.
- NASDAQ moves back up into its range after cracking the bottom of it Thursday, but DJ30 leads the Friday move.
- Expiration week and stocks are bouncing into it.
- Still split leadership and a split market.  This week it looks as if they want to come together a bit, but that is likely just temporary.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

High to Low Action, This Time with no Recovery

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks start higher, building on the Wednesday recovery.  That lasted less than 5 minutes.
- NASDAQ breaks its trading range: serious break or just a shakeout.
- Other indices still in position to bounce from oversold condition as SOX gaps higher, reverses to a lower low.
- With NASDAQ breaking its range ahead of a Friday, the waters are a bit deceptive.
(more…)

NASDAQ Stumbling Some as it Holds Range

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks bounce from early weakness, but still don’t show any upside power.
- M&A remorse: Fox, Sprint rethink their mergers.
- EU retail sales fade, Italy triple dips into recession.
- NASDAQ stumbling some as it holds range, still hard to get it going while SP500, DJ30 still look ripe to bounce.
- Leaders still show some decent patterns but consumer staples rise, showing some concern and defense.
- NASDAQ is holding on as a leader, but may need SP500, DJ30 to help push it.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Another Test of Support

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- More selling but NASDAQ again holds, other indices make better tests of support.
- Economic news not bad but Russian threatens to invade.  Stocks sell.
- Erroneous models overstate jobs by incredible amounts.
- Another test of support, still oversold.  Stocks either start to bounce or the selloff will be sharp.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Some Very Solid Moves By Some Solid Leaders

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks bounce after NASDAQ held its range in last week’s selling.
- Bounce has the indicia of a relief move given narrow breadth, lower upside volume.
- Some very solid moves by some solid leaders. More will be needed for the move to hold and continue.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Stocks Still Unsure of Next Step

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks sell, recover off lows, still unsure of next step, still consolidating.
- Mixed economic data: some good, some bad, some viewed as good that is actually bad.
- Jobs data termed ‘just right,’ but market struggles and the jobs created and those employed again tell another story.
- Construction non-spending rises.
- ISM hits a 3 year high driven by new orders that hit a new 2014 high if adjusted, a new 2014 low if unadjusted.
- Indexes oversold near term, NASDAQ holding its range, likely leading a relief bounce attempt this week.
- Stocks likely try to bounce, and some more selling early in the week would not be a bad way to deliver that bounce.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Have the Bears Emerged From Hibernation?

Investment Tips Comments Off

For the past four days, this missive has offered up a baker’s dozen reasons why it might be time to be cautious on the stock market. It would appear that Thursday’s action proved to be an exclamation point on the theme.
(more…)

Another Thursday Showing Heavy Selling

Investment Tips Comments Off

MARKET SUMMARY
- Another Thursday showing heavy selling as the downside got going.
- Stocks couldn’t rally on good news Wednesday and they couldn’t rally on bad news Thursday.  Pretty clear they just wanted to sell.
- Chicago PMI dives 10 points.
- Sellers took control but market is quite oversold heading into the Jobs Report.
- A bit more downside could lead to a rebound ahead of the weekend.

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)

Four More Reasons To Be Concerned About The Market

Investment Tips Comments Off

Five short days ago, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high at 1987.98. The move appeared to be a breakout, albeit a modest one, from the recent range. And a great many analysts – particularly those possessing the rose-tinted Revo’s – professed that 2000 was the next stop for the venerable market index.
(more…)

FOMC a Bit More Hawkish on Inflation

Investment Tips Comments Off
MARKET SUMMARY

- News appears to deliver what investors want, but stocks reluctant.
- Q2 GDP beats at 4%, adjustments, new calculations, inventories, and all.
- ADP jobs survey at 218K, but no one noticed.
- FOMC a bit more hawkish on inflation, still dovish on low rates.
- Jobs report holding investors back even with GDP beat and FOMC laissez faire?

Watch Market Overview Video

Watch Economy Summary Video

Watch Technical Summary Video

Watch Next Session Video
(more…)