The Best Newsletters

Time For a Major Correction?

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This report is being written on Sunday, April 13 and is slated to be published on Tuesday, April 15. As such, there will be ample time for the algos to “go the other way” and make the subject matter about to be discussed seem untimely and/or not necessary. However, since the research being presented is big-picture oriented with long-term implications, it could prove valuable to investors – even if stocks have rebounded strongly early in the week.
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Another Monday Rebound

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Another Monday lets the upside off the hook as stocks open higher, sell off as on last Monday, then recover late. Never got to the panic selling.
- Russian reported fomenting insurgence in Ukraine.  The US did same before the prior president’s ouster, but at least the US was not lining up tanks on the border to accomplish the plan.
- Retail Sales February hit 18 month high
- Business inventories February rise even as sales rise.
- NASDAQ, RUTX get closer to support, may try to lead a recovery.

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Are Traders Heading to the Exits?

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For the past 7-8 years, every meaningful decline in the stock market has been accompanied by a crisis, a headline, a rumor, etc. However, this time around, there is no crisis. There is no war, no news, no geopolitical tensions, no earthquake, no tsunami, no debacle in Washington, no political deadline, nor even a single rumor of a sovereign debt default. No, unless the past week was simply computers doing what the computers tend to do to the market sometimes, we’re looking at a decline that appears to be driven by something we haven’t seen for a very long time: traders/investors heading to the exits.
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Predictions of More Selling

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MARKET SUMMARY
- Another down Friday as the market swings to a near term downtrend.
- Predictions of more selling then a rebound or further selling.  No one knows who is right, just know there is trouble and we can play it.
- Inflation starts its rise, almost camouflaged by all of the issues swirling in the economy.
- NASDAQ, RUTX, even SP500 already approaching the next important support.
- How to approach this post Q-eternity market.

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Stocks Give Up Two Days of Rallying

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MARKET SUMMARY

- The two-day upside dies as stocks start soft then give up two days of rallying.
- Weaker Chinese data, stronger US data prompt investors to sell, not buy.
- Other markets in line with stock action regarding the outlook.
- Downtrend in stocks as a second rally attempt fails and undercuts recent significant support.

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Quit Worrying About the Dots

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If the current state of the market causes you to scratch your head a bit, rest assured that you are not alone.
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Relief Bounce Continued

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks haltingly continue rally early, surge as FOMC minutes give investors the nod.
- SP500, SP400 making textbook tests of support and subsequent rebounds.
- Fed helps push a broad move, but volume again lags.
- Leadership stocks appear from many areas.
- Two days up, already approaching resistance, showing good leadership.  Still looks as if some upside is still there.

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A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear

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With the blood-letting taking a break yesterday, we thought today would be a good time to continue exploring a simple, yet effective, trend-following system designed to keep investors on the right side of the market’s really big, really important moves.
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Market Needs Internals

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MARKET SUMMARY

- The bounce tries a start.  Didn’t give another big downside day, but it did sell and then recover.  A start.
- Analysts peak out of bomb shelters, upgrade some stocks.
- PBOC says don’t expect stimulus.
- SP500, SP400, DJ30 actually sport interesting upside patterns.  NASDAQ, RUTX look simply like bounces in selloffs.
- Market needs internals, leadership.  Internals weak, leadership is there but a bit defensive in addition to some former leader rebounds.

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Planning For The Next Big, Bad Bear

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Stocks were hammered again on Monday as the momentum names continue to be punished. The question of the day, of course, is if the huge declines seen recently in names like Amazon.com, Tesla, Twitter, and Yelp will cause the “meaningful correction” in the broad market indices that just about everybody on the planet is looking for.
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Prepping For A Relief Move

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks start weak, sell more, modest albeit lackluster rebound that even has a fade of its own.  Perfect.
- Selling spreads out to SP500, DJ30.
- Some leadership groups get hit, but big names hold key levels, showing doji and very good patterns, prepping for a relief move.
- Some more downside Tuesday, either at the open or after a modestly higher open, sets the stage for a bounce to test the selling.

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Momentum Trades Fall Out of Favor

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The timing of Friday’s dance to the downside, which seemingly came out of nowhere, was a bit eerie. No sooner had we penned a piece talking about the need to have a plan of action the next time the bears come to call than our furry friends seemed to suddenly awaken.
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Jobs Report Called Goldilocks Scenario

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MARKET SUMMARY
- The storm hits NASDAQ and RUTX again, this time taking a toll on SP500 and company as well.
- Jobs Report called Goldilocks scenario, but market decided it certainly was not just right.
- Low paying jobs dominate yet again.  No improvement until there is investment, and investment relies upon stable policy that promotes risk taking.  Right there are two risks: the usual risk of an endeavor with the added risk of government sanction if you are successful.
- VIX elevated its trading range but not at critical stage.  Worth watching.
- Still some great upside sectors and stocks, if they can hold up against growth’s selling.

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Are You Ready for the Next Bear Market?

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It is said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. To be accurate, it was George Santayana (a Spanish philosopher who lived from 1863 – 1952) who actually said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
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China Talking ‘Mini-Stimulus’

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Rally stalls for the day and the same pattern emerges: NYSE large caps, SOX fine, NASDAQ and RUTX struggle.
- Split performance, but no reversals on the indices, and stocks recover in afternoon ahead of jobs report.
- Weighed down by a few sectors.
- Trade deficit surges as imports jump, exports dump, GDP to be hit.  So you want to be an exporting economy?
- China talking ‘mini-stimulus.’  No money for big stimulus?
- Jobs Report next piece of data to factor into the rate hike timetable.
- NASDAQ, RUTX volatile but holding up near term.  The volatility the past quarter, however, points to their run coming to an end.

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Some Solid Leadership Moves

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MARKET SUMMARY

- New highs for several indices as the upside continues but the move slows.
- Bullard tells us all the Fed is on the case, watching for bubbles.
- Factory Orders easily beat expectations, some holes in the report.
- Some solid leadership moves, other key stocks have bounced to resistance.
- Stocks may throttle back some more ahead of Friday jobs report, the likely next catalyst.

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What the Historical Cycles Say About April

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Stocks apparently broke out of what had been a fairly painful trading range on Tuesday as the S&P 500 pushed above both the old intraday and closing highs. Of course, the bears will argue that the move was unconvincing and that no other major index followed suit. To which, anybody adorned in a bulls cap will counter by pointing to the venerable DJIA as well as the Transports.
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Headlines That Move the Markets

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After twenty trading days, the U.S. stock market (as defined by the S&P 500) has moved a whopping point and a half. Yippee.
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Yellen Decides to Provide Market Stimulus

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks end Q1 all ginned up, aided by a Yellen pep talk.
- SP500, SP400 trying to take things into their own hands while NASDAQ, RUTX try to rebound.
- Some true breaks higher, some bounces that look like relief moves.
- Old story about ‘rigged’ markets dominates the commentary.
- Yellen decides to provide her own stimulus.  Market stimulus, that is.
- Chicago PMI misses bad as US joins other economies in reporting rather crappy data to start the week.
- Some big names rebounding but rebounding into downside setups.

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A Sell Signal To Watch For

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In our last missive entitled Using the VIX to Buy the Dips, we reviewed an actionable buy signal using the VIX that is (a) easy to follow and (b) has proved its ability to put the odds in your favor over time. We received quite a few questions and comments on this article, most of which had to do with applying an appropriate/matching sell signal.
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Spending and Incomes Rise, but Revisions are Huge

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MARKET SUMMARY
- A relief attempt gets the same treatment as other rally efforts.
- Looked ready to go, but was not.
- Outside of some spectacular selloffs, much of the market looks pretty solid.
- Indices still divided, no pattern looks that great, but there are many good upside patterns out there.
- Spending and Incomes rise, but revisions are huge and you just have to question the numbers given the real numbers.
- Cannot count out SP500 rallying from here.  Cannot count on it either.

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Growth Now Oversold

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Once again growth gets sold, large cap NYSE holds support, same action in leadership.
- Growth now oversold, and Friday presents a short covering situation.
- Q4 GDP Final rises, consumption is up, but another report shows poor capital investment.
- Pending home sales struggle in a downtrend.
- NASDAQ and company set for an oversold bounce, not expecting any new highs out of it, but can use it for our advantage.

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Stocks Revert

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Early gain trashed, growth tanks, large cap NYSE again shows relative strength.
- Defensive market sees a rift grow between growth and ‘defense.’
- RUTX, NASDAQ break some support.  Maybe time for a modest relief bounce.
- Durable Goods Orders take off with airlines but otherwise are poor.
- Capital investment remains weak and thus so will jobs.
- Maybe an oversold bounce but not expecting new highs off of any move.

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Upside Start Holds Some Gains

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MARKET SUMMARY

- A pre-market gain is tested, holds, more or less, depending upon the index.
- Indices post gains but again close off the highs, don’t alter their positions.
- Leadership slides toward the less than dynamic sectors.
- SP500 has shown this look before in the uptrend.  Maybe this time it is different?
- Consumer Confidence, March posts best showing in 6 years.
- China faces a ‘mini-crisis’ according to former official as some runs on banks occur.  Yes all is well.
- February New Home Sales fall a lackluster 3.3%.  Hard to spin it positively.
- Plosser doesn’t understand the market’s reaction to Yellen’s comments.  It is clear the Fed doesn’t understand markets.
- Not giving in, but not improving market position.

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Leaders Hammered Again

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Positive futures quickly reverse as stocks continue Friday reversal.
- Afternoon rebound rescues NASDAQ for perhaps a relief move off an ABCD.
- Telling indicator: relative strength shown by the market’s lagging index.
- Leaders hammered again, but some already oversold, e.g. big name biotechs.
- March Markit PMI disappoints and no weather to blame.
- Sentiment: retail investor must be back in given the deluge of ‘sure fire’ trading commercials.
- Still don’t like the action, but you don’t have to love it for stocks to recover.

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International and Domestic Issues Driving Markets

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MARKET SUMMARY
- Change is afoot.  Indices run higher, reverse to losses.  Expiration?  Rebalance?  Rotation or more?
- International and domestic issues driving markets.
- Fed-speak affirms Yellen’s comments.
- Still some excellent upside opportunity though ready to play some downside as well.

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Using the VIX to Buy the Dips

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Before we were so rudely interrupted by all the hullabaloo surrounding Ms. Yellen’s definition of a “considerable” amount of time (now known to be six months), we were looking at how the VIX could be used to help identify decent entry points for traders looking to get long the U.S. stock market. And since the market still appears to be trying to make up its mind which way things will go from here, this appears to be as good a time as any to expand on the idea of using the VIX to “buy the freaking dips.”
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China Pushes More Stimulus

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MARKET SUMMARY
- Indices move higher post-FOMC but internals stink, some key leaders stumble.
- China pushes more stimulus as another default is announced.
- Russia sees more ‘linguistic tensions’ in Estonia as it saw in Crimea.
- Philly Fed rebounds nicely.
- LEI jumps past expectations but January is revised lower.
- Existing Home sales fall 0.4%, down 6 of 7 months
- Rotation or leadership decline?

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Of Dot Plots and Definitions

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On Wednesday, the question of the day was a bit of a head scratcher. You see, after listening intently to first the FOMC statement and then the ensuing press conference, the question on investors’ minds was, when a change is made to the Fed’s statement on monetary policy and yet the statement itself stresses that the change doesn’t represent a real change, did anything change or not?
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Leaders Mostly Hold

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks flat line into FOMC, fall on Yellen’s comments, indices hold support rather easily.
- Statement appears dovish, stocks focus on Yellen characterization of ‘considerable time’ regarding raising rates.
- Leaders mostly hold on, many manage to move higher, some break lower.
- Stocks still digesting Yellen’s timetable, Putin’s aggressive nonaggression.

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Buy the Dip Using the VIX

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Another day, another crisis averted. Phew!

In case you were out and about or weren’t glued to your Twitter feed at approximately 8:00 am eastern time Tuesday, comments made by Russian President Vladimir Putin were the source of a second straight up on Wall Street. Within minutes of Putin saying he does not have an interest in acquiring any more Ukrainian territory, stock futures went from red to green. And just like that, the latest crisis appears to have been put to bed.
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Putin Strikes a Moderate Tone, Markets Rally Again

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MARKET SUMMARY
- Putin strikes a moderate tone again, markets rally again.  Beware aggressors talking restraint.
- NASDAQ, Russell take back the lead, SOX remains in the lead.
- Volume moves higher on NASDAQ but nothing impressive.  A/D tops 3:1.
- Leadership groups reassert their leadership.
- Housing starts down third straight month as single family starts negative, apartments surge.  Hardly a normal housing recovery.
- FOMC decision, Yellen press conference dominate Wednesday action.

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Is China the Cause of the Constant Consternation?

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For the past week or so, the focus of the market has been all about Crimea and what could happen if the geopolitical tensions continued to mount. Would the referendum take place? Would Russia decide to expand into eastern Ukraine? Would the West do anything besides raise a stink? Was there really any risk to the global economy here? Because of these questions and more, traders decided to avoid the potential weekend headline risk and spent the vast majority of last week getting out of the way – presumably just in case the tanks started to roll.
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Stocks Happy

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Crimea votes as expected, no further shoes drop, stocks rally.
- Stock indices defy the ‘up early, down later’ pattern, but it is not all roses as volume tumbles while NASDAQ and RUTX close well off their highs.
- China sees second corporate default.
- US data improves as New York PMI beats, Industrial production bounces back.
- Oversold bounce?  Internals suggest it, but if no other shoe drops can continue the recovery.

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Should We Worry About Crimea?

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It is clear that the focus of the stock market remains squarely on the geopolitical situation in Ukraine/Crimea/Russia. What is not quite so clear is why this actually matters to traders.
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Russia Dumping US Treasuries, China Next

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MARKET SUMMARY
- After 5 weeks of gain with the geopolitical and economic issues piled on, stocks continue their weeklong decline.
- Little change, still in overall uptrends, heading toward strong support levels.
- Recent leadership mostly holds, some folds, some defensive areas improve.
- Michigan Sentiment dips in March.
- Russia readies to invade East Ukraine using the same ‘rationale’ it used to invade Crimea: to ‘defend compatriots.’  Can we invade Russia to defend our ‘compatriots?’
- Russia dumping US treasuries, China next.
- EPA audit reveals 90% of transactions improper, prohibited, or in error.  And the government wants to run healthcare.  Efficiently.  Cheaply.  For real.
- Letting the test make next strong support and then we see if the trend holds.

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Another Upside Start Is Lost

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Wednesday reversal just an up day in further selling as Thursday flushes a positive open, sells harder.
- Retail sales, initial claims not bad, but alone not enough.
- Again China, Russia blamed for stocks stumbling after 5 weeks upside.  Sounds more like an excuse than a reason.  Not a bad excuse, but an excuse nonetheless.
- BAC does not see a March rebound in credit card spending, GS cuts its Q1 GDP forecast in half.
- Indices sell harder but have more room to give and still maintain their trends.
- Leadership still surprisingly solid, but it has only been a week of downside.
- Letting the pullback run its course, if it will.

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Stocks Could be Starting to Become Over-Owned

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With stocks in some sort of consolidation mode at the present time, it is natural for one’s thoughts to turn to the big picture. Is this it? Has the bull market finally run out of gas? Are stocks overvalued? Will the economy improve? Have earnings peaked? Is Crimea a real issue? Yada, yada, yada.
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Leadership Holds Support

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MARKET SUMMARY

- China, Ukraine, Froth blamed for weighing down a market that was ready and has been testing.
- Lower open spurs selling but then a reversal erases the losses as the low to high action kicks in again.
- G-7 (G-8 less Russia) gets rolling, threatens Russia with ‘grave consequences’ as US Joint Chiefs say the military is ready to go at it with Russia.
- Indices tap the 20 day EMA near support, rebound.
- Leadership holds support, key stocks rebound, many are again in position to move upside.
- Leadership appears willing but indices have barely tested, volume on the rebound was low, and this could be a hiccup in a continuing test.

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The Way the Market is Played These Days

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Call it a pullback, a pause, a consolidation, the beginning of a correction, a dance to the downside, an outside day, a failure at resistance, a near-term reversal, a pivot, or a good old fashioned sloppy session. But whatever label you prefer to slap on Tuesday’s algo-induced decline, it appears that a test of near-term support is now in order and that the bears may have gotten up off of the mat yesterday.
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The Paranoia Of The Market

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Fall from the last highs continues with growth taking more of the hit.
- Higher start again cannot hold as a midmorning high flips to losses.
- Indices holding near support, RUTX a bit concerning.
- Recent leaders taking a hit. Internets a victim of their success.
- Ukraine rues the day it gave up its nukes as promises of defense from aggression appear vaporous.
- Wholesale Inventories rise as sales take a whiplash move lower.
- JOLTS new hires diverging from reported jobs.
- Test likely to continue, watching leadership at support.

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Bears Go Home Empty Handed

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For about an hour on Monday morning, it felt like the #growthslowing theme was back. Germany was tanking. Shanghai had been creamed. And at 9:45 am the bears launched an attack on the S&P 500. Bam, the low for the day was gone. And five minutes later, Friday’s intraday low had been taken out. In short, the bears were “feeling it” and the bulls appeared to be on the run.
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Time To Be Patient

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MARKET SUMMARY

- China exports set a negative tone but stocks recover lost ground in afternoon session.
- Following Friday’s bullish ‘bear capitulation’ talk, Monday brings the ‘top-heavy’ talk.
- Indices test, hold near support, recover ground.  Leaders take a needed break as others, e.g. drugs, pick up some slack.
- Time to be patient and even more selective on the upside, letting the patterns develop to good buys.

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A Long-Term Indicator Flashes a Sell Signal

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In case you missed it, Friday marked the five-year anniversary of the intraday low of the Credit Crisis bear market. However, the closing low was set on March 9, 2009 at S&P 500 676.53. Thus, through Friday’s close, the current bull market has gained 177.6 percent. Not bad for a period where the bears were quite sure the sky was actually going to fall – on several different occasions.
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Reality Hollows Out the Market Advance

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MARKET SUMMARY
- Jobs report beats, spurs market advance, but reality hollows out the move.
- Stocks rallying in anticipation of ‘great’ jobs report?  As always the monthly report glosses the erosion of the US employee class.
- Ukraine situation getting worse not better.
- Leadership is still solid but some cracks are showing up and most quality areas are overextended after the last run.

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Jobs Report is the Key Economic Evidence

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks start higher, once again have trouble holding a lead, closed mixed.
- Some same leaders, some rotation to new sectors.
- Economic data is better (jobless claims) and not (Factory orders, earnings).
- Fed hawks in full flight, dredging up ‘irrational exuberance.’
- Jobs report is the key economic evidence, though it is less than trustworthy as the election gets into swing.

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What a Difference a Day Makes

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What a difference a day makes, right? On Monday, the bears could be heard telling anyone who would listen that the sky was indeed falling in response to Russia’s “invasion” of Crimea. (“No, really, seriously, we mean it this time!”)
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Leaders Keep Leading Higher

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MARKET SUMMARY

- Putin delays military action for now, retains control of the situation, market soars.  Obama again delays Obamacare in an effort to retain control of the situation via 2014 elections.
- Indices start breaking some key levels with some rising volume.
- Leading leaders launch.
- Lots of bullish calls for market gains.  Worrisome, but, as you know, leaders keep leading higher.

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Best to Panic Early, Or Not at All?

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The drivers of the stock market on Monday were pretty obvious as the situation in Ukraine/Crimea dominated the headlines and overshadowed some pretty decent economic news. However, the real question of the day is if the current geopolitical tensions represent a true crisis or merely a distraction and/or an excuse for the bears to run a few sell algos?
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Indices Mixed, All Holding Gains

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MARKET SUMMARY
- Stocks cruising to new highs when Russia decides to start invasion early.
- Weaker GDP countered by Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment.
- Housing in 2014 is a concern as another metric falls year/year.
- Oil, the forgotten economic drag.
- Indices mixed: some break resistance, others still fighting it, all holding gains.
- Leadership stalls on Friday except for energy.
- Will RussPutin interrupt the stock drift higher?  Depends upon how much of Ukraine Putin wants for now.

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