SUMMARY:
- Boring by any other name is still boring. But . . .
- Jobless claims post third week over 400K as the 4-week average moves over 400K as well.
- First run at Q1 GDP is as lackluster as expected. Without government spending the economy is overall . . . crappy to not so crappy.
- Market looks a bit tired, extended, and likely to test the breakout, but who wants to challenge it?
(more…)
Back in the fall of 2010, big-time hedge fund manager David Tepper made headlines when he pronounced that everything was a buy going forward due to the Fed’s likely implementation of QE2. Tepper opined that with the Fed looking to push “asset prices” higher, it made sense to play along with Bernanke’s plan. The ensuing rally became known as the “Tepper Trade” as, true to his prognostication, just about everything in sight embarked on an upward path for the next six months. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Market waits around for Bernanke, gets the thumbs up on liquidity, adds to the Tuesday breakout.
- A rose by any other name . . . Bernanke to end QE2 but will continue adding liquidity all the same.
- Geithner talks ‘tough’ on a strong dollar and Bernanke seconds that notion, kind of. Their hypocrisy knows no bounds.
- Small caps return to new rally highs.
- Indices move higher on assurance of liquidity as leaders extend their gains and new wannabes step up to try their hand at rallying.
(more…)
Although there was another big batch of primarily better-than-expected earnings and some decent economic data, the stock market was really all about the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. First there was the statement accompanying the announcement that monetary policy was once again being left alone, which kept traders happy. And then, more importantly, Mr. Bernanke played ‘Meet the Press’ by holding his first-ever post-FOMC meeting news conference. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Earnings provide the catalyst NASDAQ and SP500 sought as they break through the February peak.
- Consumer Confidence rebounds after a March decline even as home prices continue to fall.
- More evidence the feds are a major cause of oil price increases: EPA wants to close the Permian Basin oil production for a lizard.
- Now that SP500, NASDAQ broke the highs, can they hold them?
(more…)
While all eyes were on the chart of the S&P 500 yesterday, it is safe to say that all eyes will be on Ben Bernanke this afternoon. More specifically, traders watched the resistance zone at 1343 on the S&P 500′s daily chart to see if the blue chip index could follow the Dow’s lead and break out to a fresh new high for the current bull market cycle. And then today, everyone in the game will be watching the Fed Chairman’s first-ever press conference following the two-day FOMC meeting. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Market sluggish after move higher to resistance and no new catalyst to drive it.
- Inflation is here (as if you didn’t know): KMB says it has to raise prices because of higher commodities prices.
- Higher oil profits under attack from our leaders, but thanks to our leaders oil profits are higher.
- NFLX earnings fail to excite investors this time, just as investors look for a new catalyst.
(more…)
At first glance, the markets appeared to do a whole lot of nothin’ on Monday. We heard lots of reports that traders may have been content to bide their time until Mr. Bernanke holds his first-ever post FOMC meeting press conference on Wednesday. But in reality, traders didn’t exactly do nothing yesterday as the blue chips fell back a bit while the NASDAQ rose, the dollar fell (again), and silver went through the roof (yes, again). (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Stocks continue their rally, giving us the moves we want but still below the February peaks.
- Strong earnings and guidance offset another week of 400K jobless claims and a tumbling Philly Fed manufacturing report.
- Leadership is across the board but financials are holding SP500 back at a critical point.
- Can earnings and a decent technical pattern push stocks through to the other side?
(more…)
Stocks managed to advance for a third straight day on Thursday on the back of another batch of better-than-expected earnings from the tech sector and another decline in the dollar. Although not all the news was positive on the day, the DJIA finished at a fresh new high for the current bull market cycle while the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Midcaps and Smallcaps are closing in on new highs as well. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- So much for a lazy rise as stocks get their catalyst and surge.
- Earnings trigger the upside rally as the pre-earnings pullback was just the right dip for a rally.
- Mortgage applications rise 5.3% . . . on refinancing.
- March Existing Home Sales rise on the back of distressed sales and cash sales, pressuring prices as inventories bounce higher.
- China pushing the yuan over the dollar as the reserve currency?
- Another rally takes NASDAQ, SP500 to the March highs for Good Friday, and likely some profit taking ahead of a long weekend.
(more…)
Cutting straight to the chase, many analysts and most of the popular press are citing the strong earnings from some very big names in technology such as Intel, IBM, Yahoo, and now Apple as the primary driver to the Dow’s recent run for the roses (and for those keeping score at home, yes, the DJIA did indeed close at a new high for the current bull market cycle on Wednesday). And while you’ll never hear me say anything even remotely negative about a spate of strong earnings, I can’t help but feel that this move is more about the dollar than anything else. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Stocks manage to post a rather unimpressive bounce as solid earnings fail to excite investors.
- Housing starts and permits reverse in March and post strong gains.
- Bernanke talks of post-QE2, adopts DC political speak regarding ‘reinvesting’ debt.
- Price hikes are occurring and are in the core, not just food and energy.
- Big earnings after hours have divergent results as market looks for that catalyst to send it to the February highs after holding important support.
(more…)
Stocks rallied on Tuesday and at first blush, there didn’t appear to be any primary driver to the advance. As always, there were positive inputs such as earnings from Johnson & Johnson, the European PMI’s, and the housing starts as well as the usual batch of negatives, which included more talk about Greece’s likely debt restructuring and the overhang from S&P’s rating outlook cut of U.S. debt. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - US debt rating still AAA, but outlook dropped to negative. Not the first time for us or others.
 - China raises bank reserve requirements again
 - Oil CEO says oil to trade less than $100/bbl by July
 - SP500, NASDAQ test February low support, bounce nicely.Â
 - Leadership ignores the debt issues, goes about its business.
 - Earnings taking front and center, start decent but TXN disappoints after hours.
(more…)
Make no mistake about it; Monday’s stock market was all about debt. There was the talk of possible debt restructuring in Greece (which would mean at least one sovereign debt default), rising rates at Spain’s T-Bill auction, another hike in the reserve requirement in China, a downgrade of Ireland’s banks, talk of the EU’s bailout program hitting snags, and most importantly, S&P’s downgrade of the outlook rating on debt right here in the good ‘ol USofA. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Stocks move higher to close expiration with leaders again improving, but the move doesn’t change anything heading into next week.
- Consumer prices rise sharply overall though the core fades.
- Production and Capacity post solid gains
- New York PMI posts a solid month as manufacturing keeps its end up.
- Michigan Sentiment first peak at April bounces back.
- Expect a light volume, holiday shortened week with earnings driving the bus.
(more…)
Unlike the majority of last week, Friday’s trading session had a plethora of data inputs to weigh before decisions could be made. There were earnings from some big names, GDP numbers out of China, inflation at the consumer level in the U.S., not one, but two reports on U.S. manufacturing, and a report on the state of the consumer from the University of Michigan. Toss in the usual concerns about a country or two across the pond, rising oil prices, and an options expiration event, and one might have expected some fireworks. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - SP500, NASDAQ remain at the 50 day EMA, but the intraday action is constructive.
 - Jobless claims crack back above 400,000
 - PPI core tops expectations but not enough to alarm the Fed.
 - Leaders continue to start to the upside and we will see if the rest of the market follows for at least a run to the February highs.
(more…)
Just about a year ago, the stock market was on a roll and it appeared that the improvement in the economy was actually occurring ahead of schedule. And on April 23rd, the Dow set another high for the then one-year old bull market. But then the problems started. There was the European debt crisis, the “flash crash,” and ultimately, fears of a double-dip recession. But after a great deal of consternation, an awful lot of volatility, and a fair amount of fear mongering, stock market investors finally came to the realization that the economy wasn’t doomed and had merely encountered a soft patch – I.E. a short period of modest economic slowdown. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - Bounce attempt mostly stalls, but SP500, NASDAQ still at the 50 day EMA after a short pullback.
 - JPM earnings gin stocks up early but market shows it needs more to get it moving at these levels.
 - Retail sales decent but on the slide even as gasoline prices surge. Demand destruction is underway.
 - Q1 GDP likely to fall below 1%.
 - Another commission to ignore. Obama delivers a partisan campaign (read budget) speech, calls for yet another deficit commission to ignore.
 - Some leaders start to move higher as NASDAQ, SP500 size up the February high from the 50 day EMA.
(more…)
I am of the mind that at least a portion of the market’s recent sloppy period can be attributed to the fact that there has been a rather large void in terms of data inputs of late. In short, the economic calendar has been fairly empty and the earnings parade doesn’t really start to roll until next week (although we will get reports from Google, JB Hunt Transport, Bank of America, and Infosys before the weekend). As such, we really can’t blame the-sky-is-falling crowd for trying to get something going to the downside lately. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - Market chooses from a multitude of reasons to sell, but in the end it is a situation of stocks and commodities racing higher finally getting overdone.
 - Goldman reiterates its oil top position while other indications show some demand destruction.
 - Germany sentiment falls, US small business owner optimism declines as well.
 - Japan upgrades its nuclear disaster, realizes more economic harm than thought.
 - Trade balance falls as imports decline while import prices surge.
 - SP500, NASDAQ at the 50 day EMA after three downside sessions.
 - Energy stocks trying to bounce late after the selloff. They will help tell the near term story along with leaders that are not selling hard.
 - The selloff puts stocks in better position ahead of earnings, and now investors are looking for earnings to deliver.
(more…)
Having been away from my desk a fair amount over the past two days, the biggest question I have at the current time is if the current fears relating to the waning of global economic recovery expectations are real, or merely the latest excuse du jour for the fast-money to go the other way for a while. (more…)
Stocks sagged on Monday in response to worries about global growth, inflation, and some big names making some big trades. Although the Dow managed to finish with a green number, the S&P 500 fell -.28%, the NASDAQ dropped -0.32% and the market-leading Midcaps fell-0.70%. And with breadth and volume statistics all finishing with decisively negative readings, it is tough to call it an up day. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - Another day of backpedalling as oil, commodities succumbed to some profit taking.
 - M&A activity is getting darn interesting.
 - Jobs gains, or more accurately, the fewer job losses, are not as few as the headlines and Administration suggest.
 - IMF downgrades US growth prospects as deficit reduction talk is not credible.
 - Still a normal test thus far as SP500, NASDAQ, SP600 test and hold the 20 day EMA.
(more…)
SUMMARY:
-Â After 4 days of lateral consolidation SP500 dips to the 10 day EMA. Of course it must have been due to the pending government shutdown.
-Â Liquidity versus Oil: Oil breaks $112/bbl and may have finally hit consumers’ choke point as Fed makes same mistakes of the 1970′s.
-Â Bernanke, a Great Depression expert, needs to bone up on the 1970′s.
-Â Rapidly declining dollar adding horsepower to the oil and commodity price spike, and consequently, inflation.
-Â Tired of whiners.
-Â Despite all the hoopla Friday, it was a pretty normal, and small, pullback.
(more…)
The stock market finished lower on Friday as volatility struck in the final two hours of the session and the dip-buyers decided to take the day off. The primary drivers of the action included worries over what appeared at the time to be a looming government shutdown, some more hawkish commentary out of Fed governors, trepidation in front of the upcoming earnings season, and oil prices surging to new highs. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - Back and forth once more, going nowhere slowly.
 - Same Store Sales called  decent  but given the circumstances they were superb.
 - Jobless claims edging back toward 400K, but the trend is still holding.
 - Home prices continue to fall . . . further.
 - A quick and different perspective of the debt, necessary federal employees.
 - Lateral consolidation or a pullback, market continues showing resilience thanks to liquidity.
(more…)
While I don’t want to appear as if I am beating a dead horse, Thursday was likely another day of disappointment for anyone leaning toward the dark side. Yes, it is true that the indices did all finish in the red for a change. And it is also true that the action did get a little ugly there for a while mid-morning. However, even the most ardent bears will have to admit that a drop of 17 Dow points isn’t anything to write home about and that things just don’t seem to be going their way right now. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - Just when it looked as if the liquidity trade was back on and SP500 could take on the February high, stocks lost their bid and the move waffled.
 - Many stocks reverse sharply, not breaking support but turning weaker as NASDAQ and SP500 cannot break near resistance.
 - Inability to break recent highs, haggard action in many stocks suggest a near term pullback.
(more…)
These are the times when it is oh so easy to become complacent with the action in the stock market. And in short, this just might be one of those times. For the fourth straight day, the major indices wound up doing an awful lot of nothing, leading investors to believe that there isn’t much downside risk at the present time. In case you haven’t noticed, the sentiment amongst the talking heads has gone from dire to overtly happy over that past couple of weeks. Cutting to the chase, the thinking seems to be that traders are simply waiting on the results from the earnings parade right now and that once the numbers start rolling in, it will be up, up, and away. (more…)
SUMMARY:
 - Divergent news pulls the market down, up, back down, but in the end stocks basically go nowhere.
 - Bernanke inflation admission appears to trump other stories, until the market opens.
 - China rate hikes, Portugal credit cut, EU PMI vie with TXN/NSM merger to direct stocks.
 - ISM Service index continues to lag manufacturing.
 - FOMC minutes show, despite Bernanke’s inflation admission, show the Fed is staying the QE course.
 - SP500, NASDAQ move past next resistance but then cannot hold the move, leaving them lagging DJ30, SP600 still.
(more…)
How tough is it to be a bear these days, you ask? Well, by my count, there were no fewer than eight negative headlines for the bears to try and take advantage of on Wednesday. And yes, a couple might be considered retreads. But despite a market that is once again overbought and bumping its head on resistance as well as a fistful of reasons to do some selling, our furry friends were able to produce a decline of just 6 points on the venerable DJIA. Oh, and don’t look now, but the smallcaps, midcaps, and even the NASDAQ wound up with green screens by the time the closing bell rang. Ouch. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Sluggish session as stocks cannot push the rally higher . . . BUT they don t sell off after quarter end either.
- More of same news-wise, but liquidity still wins out despite lackluster day.
- Hear that? Earnings are coming but damn few guidance releases, upside or downside.
- Big chip deal after hours sparks chip buying. Will the chips change tech’s luck?
- Bernanke late Monday implies there is current inflation but calls it transitory.
(more…)
Despite the green screens seen at the close, the bulls basically took a break on Monday. After a steady two-week rally that pushed prices either back to or above recent highs, traders may have decided that there is no need to get ahead of themselves in front of an important earnings parade. Thus, Monday’s pause in the action was to be expected. And cutting to the chase, we just might see some additional waffling until earnings season starts in earnest next week. (more…)
SUMMARY:
- Jobs report or not, stocks perform as expected, providing us opportunity to work our plan and take some more gain.
- China PMI, M&A activity set the stage for a better, partially that is, jobs report.
- My how the jobs picture has changed as our country has embraced socialism.
- US PMI remains solid though misses its expectations.
- SP500, DJ30 bumping February highs, unable to punch through even on the jobs data.
- Running out of room at the prior highs or will the Fed liquidity continue to overcome world events and buoy stocks?
(more…)
Although it might be a bit of a stretch to call it a “Goldilocks” report, Friday’s jobs data did seem to provide the type of not-too-hot, yet not-too-cold data that can often lead to gains in the stock market. So given that the data was strong enough to support the idea that the economy may have finally turned the corner on jobs, gains is what investors got again on Friday. The DJIA wound up flirting with new highs for this bull market cycle while the market-leading Midcap and Smallcap indices once again marched to new all-time highs for the third day in a row. (more…)
SUMMARY:
-Â Stocks cannot quite get on track to end a solid quarter.
-Â Jobless claims lower but not really. The trend continues, however.
-Â Chicago PMI tops expectations, remains solid.
-Â Factory orders turn negative in February.
- IRS calls republican proposed budget cuts potentially devastating. Â
- Jumping EU CPI sends dollar lower on belief ECB will raise rates, Fed will do nothing.
-Â Another Fed president talks of rate hikes: Kocherlakota
- New quarter, new month. New money, profit taking, or both?
(more…)
Stocks limped into the end of the first quarter on Thursday. After encountering the first correction since the end of November, stocks have put on an impressive display during the second half of March as the major indices have largely recovered and are either at or very close to their highs for the current market cycle. However, with some big economic data on the near-term horizon, it wasn’t surprising to see the buyers stand aside on the final day of the quarter. (more…)
