Another Day of Backpedalling
- Another day of backpedalling as oil, commodities succumbed to some profit taking.
- M&A activity is getting darn interesting.
- Jobs gains, or more accurately, the fewer job losses, are not as few as the headlines and Administration suggest.
- IMF downgrades US growth prospects as deficit reduction talk is not credible.
- Still a normal test thus far as SP500, NASDAQ, SP600 test and hold the 20 day EMA.
MARKET SUMMARY
After a big run, oil and commodities suffer some pre-earnings profit taking.
Futures were modestly higher as stocks tried an early rebound from the late Friday government shutdown selloff. Stocks dutifully started higher but within the hour they gave up the gains and started a steady, albeit slow, slide of lower highs and lower lows on the session that took all indices negative after lunch. It took a recovery in the last hour to slice the losses in half and indeed crack DJ30 back into the green at the close. Losses on the big indices, sans DJ30, were roughly 0.3%. Very staid, very orderly thus far.
M&A provided a lot of the early excitement with some tasty offerings. LVLT bought GLBC for a 50% premium. ENDP bought AMMD for a 30% premium. FLO is gobbling up TSTY (Tasty Baking). These premiums are impressive, and are getting some people excited. Very good for the market.
The news was not all great though you have to look at the sources. The IMF downgraded its US 2011 forecast to 2.9% . . . from 3.0%. Why? US deficit reduction plans, whether the Obama budget/healthcare/ investment spend-a-thon, the big $38.5B cut in spending last week, or the Ryan and yet to be named democratic 2012 budget version. Ironic isn t it with the IMF saying someone else s actions or plans are not credible. More like comical.
Speaking of the $38.5B deal last week, we received plenty of comments on my diatribe in the weekend report. Perhaps I was too hasty given that the Senate will have to vote on a repeal of Obamacare when many in the Senate, already worried about reelection, don t want to be on record voting for that abomination a second time. Still, when the amount of money saved does not hardly cover the debt accumulated while it was negotiated, it is kind of comical.
Moreover, consider this. The agreement is said to cut spending in 2011 over 2010, but even with the cuts, 2011 spending will be more than 2010. How? Because the deal cut spending that was going to be new spending, not existing spending. In other words, it was not cutting spending, it was reducing an anticipated increase in spending. That is the same as my daughter saying that cut our spending because she opted not to buy a new pair of shoes with the new shirt, blouse, and matching jewelry.
TUESDAY
Yes there is a bit more economic data on Tuesday and we will be focused on the import prices and trade balance, but the lens is now turning and focusing in on earnings. Alcoa officially started earnings after hours but the real names start next week. That does not mean there won t be a lot of earnings that can impact the market this week, but the influence of earnings will have investors looking ahead as they interpret the few results this week.
As for the indices, they are almost set up well though they could have pulled back some more ahead of the official start of earnings. There is still plenty of time to pull back the rest of this week and be set for the meat of the order starting next.
There is no question in our mind that a further pullback would be the best action, enough that there is a good shakeout that gets rid of the stocks that were following along while the real leaders hold support ore reverse after a quick breach. Of course what we feel would be best is academic as the market makes the story. What we do is look at the strong stocks, watch how they set up, be ready to move when they look to have bottomed and reversed, and then step in. We have several of those on the report right now, watching them test, adjusting the buy point as they do.
As for current positions, those that can hold support or close to it even if they break it for a intraday or a day and then reverse (e.g. no follow through, no volume on the move, bouncing off the lows) are the ones that we keep because they are the ones acting the same as those we want to buy. Those that cannot we close; sometimes we get burned as they rebound, but we would prefer to defend if they get dicey.
Remember, the indices sold off more than they have in any other pullback on this run and they are below the prior highs, and that has opened the downside door for really the first time on this long run. Thus exercising a bit of caution is not a bad idea. Indeed we have the SPY downside position and picked up an OIH downside play Monday to take advantage of a short term pullback, and of course a longer term one if things get ugly.
